Q3 2025 Earnings Season

What S&P 500 CEOs are actually saying — and what it means for your business.

Cross-company intelligence from earnings calls. Competitor mentions, operator signals, and the trends founders need to track.

Signals

▲ TAILWIND41

◆ MIXED12

● NEUTRAL18

▼ HEADWIND8

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This Quarter's Narratives

01▲ TAILWIND

The Infrastructure Arms Race

Google, Microsoft, and Amazon are spending more on AI infrastructure than most countries' GDP. The scarcity is chips and power, not customers.

GOOGLMSFTAMZN

Google capex: $91–93B (raised guidance)Microsoft capex: $19.4B in Q3 alone (+30% YoY)Amazon: 3.8GW power capacity added in 12 months

02◆ MIXED

AI Agents Are Upsells, Not New Revenue

Every company shipped AI agents this quarter. None of them broke through on NRR. The upsell narrative is emerging but unproven.

HUBSZMMSFTCRM

HubSpot ARPU: only +3% despite 21% revenue growthZoom NRR: 98% (below 100% = net contraction)Microsoft Copilot: bundled into existing M365 licenses

03▲ TAILWIND

The Great Platform Consolidation

SMBs and mid-market companies are collapsing their tech stacks onto single platforms. Point solutions are getting squeezed.

SHOPHUBS

Shopify: 32% GMV growth, merchant solutions +38%HubSpot: 278,880 customers (+17%), 'consolidate tech stacks'Shopify new merchant every 26 seconds

04▲ TAILWIND

The Anthropic-AWS Axis

Amazon's Anthropic bet is paying off — $9.5B in paper gains and deepening technical integration. This is reshaping cloud AI strategy.

AMZNMSFT

Amazon: $9.5B unrealized gains on Anthropic investmentProject Rainier: 500,000 Trainium2 chips for ClaudeAWS Bedrock: now hosts Anthropic + OpenAI + DeepSeek models

05● NEUTRAL

Cash Machines in Waiting

Mature SaaS companies are printing cash at absurd margins while reinvesting in AI. The question is whether AI spend converts to growth.

ZMSHOPHUBSAAPL

Zoom: 50% free cash flow marginShopify: 18% FCF margin, 9 consecutive quarters of double-digitHubSpot: non-GAAP operating margin 19.9% (up from 18.7%)

Latest Earnings

CompanyRevenueGrowthEPSSignalCompetitors

AVGOBroadcom Inc.Q3-2025

$18.0B+28%$1.74▲ TAILWIND—

COSTCostco Wholesale Corp.Q3-2025

$66.0B+8%$4.50▲ TAILWIND—

ADBEAdobe Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

ORCLOracle Corp.Q3-2025

$16.1B+14%$2.10▲ TAILWIND6 mentioned

CPBCampbell Soup Co.Q3-2025

$2.7B-3%$0.65▼ HEADWIND—

CVSCVS Health Corp.Q3-2025

$400.0B—$6.65▲ TAILWIND—

PEPPepsiCo Inc.Q3-2025

———◆ MIXED—

NFLXNetflix Inc.Q3-2025

———▲ TAILWIND1 mentioned

DALDelta Air Lines Inc.Q3-2025

———◆ MIXED—

CRWDCrowdStrike Holdings Inc.Q3-2025

$1.2B+22%$0.96▲ TAILWIND12 mentioned

DEDeere & Co.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

ADIAnalog Devices Inc.Q3-2025

$3.1B+26%$1.60▲ TAILWIND—

ANFAbercrombie & Fitch Co.Q3-2025

$1.3B+7%$2.36◆ MIXED—

AAgilent Technologies Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

ZMZoom Video Communications Inc.Q3-2025

$1.2B+4%$1.52● NEUTRAL—

ABTAbbott LaboratoriesQ3-2025

———▲ TAILWIND3 mentioned

CPRTCopart Inc.Q3-2025

$1.2B+1%$0.41● NEUTRAL—

INTUIntuit Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

APTVAptiv plcQ3-2025

$20.3B+3%$7.70◆ MIXED2 mentioned

HDHome Depot Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

PYPLPayPal Holdings Inc.Q3-2025

———▲ TAILWIND1 mentioned

ACNAccenture plcQ3-2025

———▼ HEADWIND—

AOSA. O. Smith Corp.Q3-2025

———▲ TAILWIND—

CSCOCisco Systems Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

CNCCentene Corp.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

VVisa Inc.Q3-2025

———▼ HEADWIND3 mentioned

ABNBAirbnb Inc.Q3-2025

$4.1B+10%$2.25▲ TAILWIND—

AKAMAkamai Technologies Inc.Q3-2025

$1.1B+5%$0.97◆ MIXED1 mentioned

AMEAMETEK Inc.Q3-2025

$24M+0%$-0.14▼ HEADWIND2 mentioned

APDAir Products and Chemicals Inc.Q3-2025

$3.2B-1%$0.02◆ MIXED2 mentioned

DDDuPont de Nemours Inc.Q3-2025

$3.1B+7%$1.09▲ TAILWIND—

APOApollo Global Management Inc.Q3-2025

$1.3B-4%$-0.58◆ MIXED7 mentioned

ATOAtmos Energy Corp.Q3-2025

——$7.46▲ TAILWIND—

CORCencora Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

DECKDeckers Outdoor Corp.Q3-2025

$183M+3%$0.18● NEUTRAL—

FTNTFortinet Inc.Q3-2025

$1.7B+14%$0.62▲ TAILWIND—

HUBSHubSpot Inc.Q3-2025

$810M+21%$2.66▲ TAILWIND—

QCOMQualcomm Inc.Q3-2025

$11.3B+10%$3.00▲ TAILWIND2 mentioned

ADMArcher-Daniels-Midland Co.Q3-2025

$20.4B+2%$0.22▼ HEADWIND1 mentioned

AFLAflac Inc.Q3-2025

$4.7B+61%$3.08▲ TAILWIND—

AIZAssurant Inc.Q3-2025

$3.2B+9%$5.17▲ TAILWIND—

AMDAdvanced Micro Devices Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

AXONAxon Enterprise Inc.Q3-2025

$711M+31%$-0.03▲ TAILWIND—

BBWIBath & Body Works Inc.Q3-2025

$3.8B+0%$0.34◆ MIXED1 mentioned

SHOPShopify Inc.Q3-2025

$2.8B+32%—▲ TAILWIND1 mentioned

UBERUber Technologies Inc.Q3-2025

$13.5B+20%$3.11▲ TAILWIND—

AONAon plcQ3-2025

$4.0B+7%$2.11▲ TAILWIND—

DDominion Energy Inc.Q3-2025

$4.5B+15%$1.06▲ TAILWIND—

AJGArthur J. Gallagher & Co.Q3-2025

$3.3B+20%$1.04▲ TAILWIND6 mentioned

AMZNAmazon.com Inc.Q3-2025

$180.2B+13%$1.95▲ TAILWIND18 mentioned

CMSCMS Energy Corp.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

MRKMerck & Co. Inc.Q3-2025

$17.3B+4%$2.58◆ MIXED7 mentioned

AEPAmerican Electric Power Co. Inc.Q3-2025

$6.0B+11%$1.80▲ TAILWIND—

ALGNAlign Technology Inc.Q3-2025

$996M+2%$0.78◆ MIXED1 mentioned

AWKAmerican Water Works Co. Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

GOOGLAlphabet Inc.Q3-2025

$102.3B+16%$2.87▲ TAILWIND—

METAMeta Platforms Inc.Q3-2025

$51.2B+26%$1.05▲ TAILWIND—

CSGPCoStar Group Inc.Q3-2025

$834M+20%$-0.07▲ TAILWIND5 mentioned

CTASCintas Corp.Q3-2025

$2.3B+8%$0.93▲ TAILWIND—

CDNSCadence Design Systems Inc.Q3-2025

$1.3B+10%$1.05▲ TAILWIND2 mentioned

DAYDayforce Inc.Q3-2025

$1.3B+10%$1.05▲ TAILWIND1 mentioned

SNOWSnowflake Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

AALAmerican Airlines Group Inc.Q3-2025

$13.7B+0%$-0.17◆ MIXED1 mentioned

ALLEAllegion plcQ3-2025

$1.1B+11%$2.18▲ TAILWIND—

CNPCenterPoint Energy Inc.Q3-2025

——$0.50▲ TAILWIND3 mentioned

APHAmphenol Corp.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

AVYAvery Dennison Corp.Q3-2025

$2.2B+2%$2.13◆ MIXED—

CPTCamden Property TrustQ3-2025

$2.6B-4%$112.33▼ HEADWIND—

IBMInternational Business Machines Corp.Q3-2025

—+7%—▲ TAILWIND9 mentioned

TXNTexas Instruments Inc.Q3-2025

$4.7B+14%$1.48▲ TAILWIND—

AXPAmerican Express Co.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

CRMSalesforce Inc.Q3-2025

———▲ TAILWIND—

DEIDouglas Emmett Inc.Q3-2025

$251M-0%$-0.07▼ HEADWIND5 mentioned

JNJJohnson & JohnsonQ3-2025

$24.0B+7%$2.12▲ TAILWIND1 mentioned

ABBVAbbVie Inc.Q3-2025

———● NEUTRAL—

BACBank of America Corp.Q3-2025

$28.1B+11%$1.06▲ TAILWIND—

CECelanese Corp.Q3-2025

——$1.34▼ HEADWIND—

AAPLApple Inc.Q3-2025

$94.0B+10%$1.57▲ TAILWIND5 mentioned

MSFTMicrosoft Corp.Q3-2025

$70.1B+13%$3.46▲ TAILWIND12 mentioned